Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rallied for a third day in a row on Wednesday on buying in Reliance Industries, Infosys, HDFC twins and ICICI Bank following gains in global equities amid hopes of a breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The 30-share BSE barometer index surged 740.34 points or 1.28 per cent to settle at 58,683.99. During the day, it jumped 784.13 points or 1.35 per cent to 58,727.78. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty climbed 172.95 points or 1 per cent to settle at 17,498.25. Among the 30-share pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Power Grid, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Maruti, Reliance Industries Limited were among the lead gainers. On the other hand, ITC, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel and Titan were among the laggards.
The BSE Sensex maintained its winning run for the fourth session on the trot on Wednesday to reclaim the 60,000-level after a gap of over four months as investors remained upbeat amid softening crude oil prices and persistent foreign fund inflows. A strengthening rupee and positive Asian markets further bolstered sentiment, traders said. The 30-share BSE benchmark jumped 417.92 points or 0.70 per cent to settle at 60,260.13 -- closing above the psychologically key 60,000-mark for the first time since April 5 this year.
Foreign investors pumped in Rs 11,119 crore in the Indian equities in December, making it the second consecutive monthly inflow, despite increasing concerns over the re-emergence of Covid-19 cases in some parts of the world. However, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned cautious in recent days. The inflow in December was much lower compared to Rs 36,239 crore invested by FPIs in the month of November, data with the depositories showed.
Vedanta Limited (Vedanta) helping its parent and group holding company Vedanta Resources to deleverage its balance sheet has started to strain its balance sheet. Vedanta's gross debt (consolidated) was up 24.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in FY23 and reached a six-year high of Rs 66,628 crore by the end of March. Similarly, its net debt went up 20.3 per cent YoY to Rs 45,706 crore at the end of FY23, up from Rs 38,228 crore a year ago; it was the highest since FY20.
Benchmark indices failed to hold on to early gains and closed in the red for the seventh straight session on Thursday, with participants remaining in wait-and-watch mode ahead of the RBI's interest rate decision. Unabated selling by foreign funds added to the pressure, though a modest recovery in the rupee cushioned the fall, traders said. After rallying in early trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex came under selling pressure in the afternoon session and closed 188.32 points or 0.33 per cent lower at 56,409.96.
The rupee depreciated 40 paise to an all-time low of 81.93 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday as the strengthening of the American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and significant foreign fund outflows sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 81.90 against the greenback, then fell to 81.93, registering a fall of 40 paise over its previous closing.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
Mutual funds focused on investing in fixed-income securities witnessed a heavy outflow of Rs 92,248 crore in June on uncertain macro environment, driven by expectations around an increasing rate cycle, higher commodity prices and slowdown in growth. This comes following a net outflow of Rs 32,722 crore in May and an inflow of Rs 54,756 crore in April, data available with Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. Out of the 16 fixed-income or debt fund categories, 14 witnessed net outflows during the month under review.
Gold, which was hovering around $1,321 an ounce in January 2019, has already breached $1,600 per ounce in the past few sessions to a seven-year high.
The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Nio conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation. "Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nio conditions in India this year. "If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices," the ministry said in its monthly economic review.
Violation of the ban will invite punitive action, including a fine or a jail term or both, detailed under Section 15 of the Environment Protection Act (EPA) and under bylaws of respective municipal corporations, they said. For effective enforcement of the ban, national and state-level control rooms have been set up and special enforcement teams formed to check illegal manufacture, import, stocking, distribution, sale and use of banned SUP items, officials in the ministry said.
The filing of offer documents with the capital markets regulator - Securities and Exchange Board of India - has more than halved this financial year (2022-23, or FY23) as the outlook for new share sales has worsened, following correction in the secondary market. So far in FY23, 66 companies filed their draft red herring prospectus (DRHP), as opposed to 144 in the preceding financial year (2021-22, or FY22).
IndusInd Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 3 per cent, followed by HUL, ONGC, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, M&M and Tech Mahindra. NSE Nifty tumbled 154.25 points to 14,696.50.
India's economy grew 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, pushing up the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent, official data showed on Wednesday.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has spooked financial markets globally, will set the tone for Dalal Street this week amid concerns over energy prices and foreign fund outflows, analysts said. Participants will also track key macroeconomic signals like GDP estimates and PMI data for manufacturing and services sectors to be announced this week, they added. "With earnings season behind us and given the overall sentiments, markets are expected to move in sync with global peers in the coming week. "A close eye will be kept on the developments concerning the Russia - Ukraine crisis and considering the inflation overhang, market participants will also observe movements in energy prices," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd.
Oil edged up on Tuesday, steadying after a 5 per cent plunge in the previous session that saw prices touch fresh 5-1/2-year lows in an oversupplied market.
The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data announcements and ongoing quarterly earnings are some of the major factors that will drive the stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, monthly auto sales numbers and the LIC IPO will also remain in focus, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id). "The market is likely to kick off this week on a sombre note after a sharp fall in the US market then the focus will shift to the outcome of the US FOMC meeting, which is crucial amid record inflation and growth worries.
Retail inflation fell to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March, mainly due to a decline in food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The inflation figure in March is within the RBI's comfort zone as it is below 6 per cent. The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.44 per cent in February 2023 and 6.95 per cent in the year-ago period.
The Fed interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data announcements and quarterly earnings will be the major sentiment drivers for the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Investors will also take cues from the monthly auto sales numbers to be announced on Monday. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Diwali Laxmi Pujan and on Friday for Diwali Balipratipada.
The ban on certain single-use plastic (SUP) items kicks in from Friday, with state governments initiating an enforcement campaign to identify and close down units engaging in production, distribution, stocking and sale of such items, officials said. Though several manufacturers have said they are not prepared to implement the ban due to a lack of alternatives, Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav had on Tuesday said the government had given enough time to the industry and the general public to prepare for the ban on SUP items and it hopes for everyone's cooperation in implementing it from July 1. Violation of the ban will invite punitive action, including a fine or a jail term or both, detailed under Section 15 of the Environment Protection Act (EPA) and under bylaws of respective municipal corporations, officials in the Union environment ministry said.
The outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and unprecedented lockdowns in China have roiled its equity market and also that of Hong Kong. After the crisis-hit Sri Lanka, China and Hong Kong are the worst-performing stock markets in Asia on a year-to-date basis.
Adani Enterprises became the fourth listed company of Gautam Adani Group to cross Rs 4 trillion market capitalisation (market cap), as the stock hit a new high on the BSE in Tuesday's intra-day trade. At 01:24 pm; with Rs 4.04 trillion market cap, Adani Enterprises stood at number 15th position in overall market cap ranking on the BSE, data shows. Adani Transmission is at top of the group companies list, with market cap of Rs 4.48 trillion, followed by Adani Total Gas (Rs 3.96 trillion), and Adani Green Energy (Rs 3.72 trillion).
There are multiple near-term worries for the stock of India's largest listed consumer company, Hindustan Unilever (HUL). While inflationary pressures will weigh on its profitability, demand pressures - especially in the rural market - are expected to hit the firm's revenues. This is why brokerages have cut the earnings estimates for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) by 7-10 per cent.
Tomato prices in retail markets of metro cities have shot up to Rs 72 per kilogram on tight supply due to unseasonal rains in key producing states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
India's gold import bill, estimated at $3 billion in May, is seen falling further this month
Indian policymakers are almost alone, alongside the United States, in seeking a hard and multi-sectoral global decoupling from China in the expectation that it will boost their economies, observes Mihir S Sharma.
Benchmark indices continued their downtrend on Monday, with the Sensex falling 84.88 points, tracking selling in index majors Infosys and Reliance Industries along with weak global equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark went lower by 84.88 points or 0.15 per cent to settle at 56,975.99 after recovering some lost ground during the fag-end of trade. During the day, it tanked 648.25 points or 1.13 per cent to 56,412.62. The NSE Nifty declined 33.45 points or 0.20 per cent to close at 17,069.10.
'Overtightening of monetary policy by central banks and the spread of new Covid variants, which may force governments to restart lockdowns or restrict mobility.'
The Indian financial services space seems to be in a sweet spot as foreign investors have made a net investment of Rs 14,205 crore ($2.1 billion) in the sector in November amid strong credit growth and manageable non-performing loan portfolio. The investment comes following a net withdrawal of Rs 4,686 crore from financial services stocks in October on account of profit booking. Overall, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have made a net investment of Rs 36,238 crore in the country's equity markets in November.
Continuing their selling spree for the sixth consecutive month, foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 41,000 crore from the Indian equity market in March on anticipation of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and deteriorating geopolitical environment amid the Russia-Ukraine war. Further, flows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are expected to remain volatile in the near term given the headwinds in terms of elevated crude prices and inflation, experts said. According to data available with the depositories, FPIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 41,123 crore in the equity market last month.
It would not be surprising if India, the world's largest producer of milk, has to resort to imports to meet the elevated summer demand, states Surinder Sud.
Damage from new shenanigans can be contained if regulators move quickly when something does not smell right, counsels Debashis Basu.
Paring its early gains, benchmark BSE Sensex fell by 304 points on Wednesday as investors booked profit after recent gains amid concerns over inflation and supply constraints. Despite a firm start, the 30-share BSE barometer declined by 304.48 points or 0.53 per cent to settle at 57,684.82. During the day, it tanked 420.71 points or 0.72 per cent to 57,568.59.
The correction seen in the stock markets thus far is insufficient and there are significant downside risks, given the way macroeconomic data is shaping up, a Nomura equity strategist said on Thursday. "The markets are trying to look through the current stress we see in the macros. There are potential risks to the market. "Our estimates assume no major impact on growth and earnings. "The market should have been at least 5 per cent lower than it is now.
As India looks to mend its Covid-battered economy, one thing that will grab the attention of all concerned is the path that both wholesale and retail inflation will follow. Even the Reserve Bank of India in its latest policy statement said, "Going forward, the inflation trajectory is likely to be shaped by uncertainties impinging on the upside and the downside.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
Titan was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying over 5 per cent, followed by Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Finserv, SBI, Nestle India, ITC, Axis Bank and Tata Steel. Nifty rose 46 points to its fresh closing peak of 17,991.95.
The one-year returns for equity-oriented mutual fund (MFs) schemes have largely mirrored the gains made in the secondary market. However, schemes that invest in infrastructure (infra), small-cap, and public sector undertaking (PSU) banks have emerged standout performers, with gains in excess of 100 per cent in some cases. Of the total 484 equity schemes, 353 have managed to beat the Sensex, reveals the data provided by Value Research. Around 20 have delivered returns in excess of 90 per cent and six schemes have given returns of over 100 per cent in the past one year. The S&P BSE Sensex Total Return Index (TRI) has given returns of 51 per cent in the last one year, ended October 29.
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
'As far as contract farming is concerned, we already have a model Act and states will be encouraged to adopt them.'
